A recent study published in the prestigious medical journal Lancet suggests that the death toll from Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza could exceed 186,000 people. The study emphasizes that this number accounts for both direct and indirect fatalities, highlighting the long-term consequences of the conflict.
Since the conflict began on October 7, following deadly attacks by Hamas, Gaza’s Ministry of Health reports over 38,000 Palestinians have been killed. However, the study argues that the official death toll underestimates the real number due to the significant number of individuals buried under rubble and those who will die from indirect causes such as disease and malnutrition.
The Lancet study stresses that conflicts often lead to a surge in indirect deaths due to the destruction of critical infrastructure. In Gaza, extensive damage to health facilities, food distribution systems, and other public services will likely result in many more deaths in the months and years ahead. The study projects that for every direct death, there could be up to four indirect deaths. This conservative estimate aligns with historical data from previous conflicts, where indirect deaths can range from three to 15 times the number of direct fatalities.
If the indirect death toll reaches the estimated numbers, it would mean the deaths of nearly 8% of Gaza’s pre-war population of 2.3 million. This alarming projection underscores the severe humanitarian crisis unfolding in the region.
The study also highlights the difficulties in accurately documenting the true scale of the casualties. The widespread destruction has made it nearly impossible to maintain a comprehensive and accurate count. Despite accusations of data fabrication, Israeli intelligence, the UN, and the World Health Organization all find these claims against Palestinian authorities to be unfounded.
Documenting the true extent of the death toll is not only crucial for historical records but also a legal necessity. The International Court of Justice, in its interim rulings on a genocide case against Israel, emphasized the importance of preserving evidence related to allegations under the Genocide Convention.
It’s important to note that this study was published in the correspondence section of the Lancet, which means it has yet to undergo the standard peer review process. Nonetheless, its findings provide a sobering perspective on the far-reaching impacts of the conflict on Gaza’s population.
