Robert Cook, a geopolitical expert, shares his views on the Israel-Gaza conflict and how U.S. policies have shaped the region. In this interview, he discusses the possible impact of Trump’s return to the White House, key policy changes, and what the future may hold for Gaza and the Middle East.
Hello, welcome to About Insider! Could you briefly introduce yourself and highlight your expertise on Middle East policies and the Gaza situation?
I’m Robert Cook, a geopolitical analyst and expert on Middle East policies, with a particular focus on the Israel-Gaza conflict. Over the years, I have examined how U.S. foreign policy shapes the region’s stability, drawing on historical precedents and current developments. My work delves into the intersection of diplomacy, security, and humanitarian concerns, providing nuanced insights into the complexities of Israeli-Palestinian relations. Given the fragile nature of Gaza’s political and humanitarian landscape, I analyze how shifting U.S. administrations impact the balance of power, negotiations, and long-term prospects for peace.
How will Trump’s return to the White House impact the current Gaza ceasefire?
Trump’s return to the White House would likely result in a sharp departure from the Biden administration’s approach to Gaza. The current ceasefire, tenuous as it is, depends on diplomatic efforts that involve multiple actors, including Egypt, Qatar, and international humanitarian organizations. Under Trump, we could expect a more hardline, pro-Israel stance, potentially reducing U.S. diplomatic engagement with Palestinian leadership.
If Trump reinstates his policy of unconditional support for Israel’s security measures, we might see Israel taking a more aggressive approach in Gaza, potentially undermining the ceasefire. Additionally, his skepticism of multilateral institutions like the U.N. and his previous cuts to aid for Palestinian refugees (via UNRWA) could further weaken efforts to sustain peace. If escalation occurs, a second Trump term might not prioritize mediation efforts, leading to a prolonged cycle of violence and instability.
What specific policies of Trump’s are likely to cause the most tension in the Middle East?
Several policies from Trump’s first term had destabilizing effects on the region, and their return would likely exacerbate tensions:
- Unwavering Support for Israeli Settlements: Trump effectively greenlit Israeli expansion in the West Bank by recognizing settlements as not inherently illegal. This stance could embolden Israel to take further unilateral actions in Gaza or the West Bank, triggering Palestinian unrest.
- Moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem: While this move was completed in 2018, a second Trump administration might double down on Jerusalem as Israel’s undivided capital, further alienating Palestinians and fueling regional discontent.
- Abandoning a Two-State Solution: Trump largely sidelined Palestinian leadership in favor of normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states. Without meaningful dialogue on Palestinian statehood, tensions in Gaza could escalate.
- Defunding Palestinian Aid: If Trump resumes cutting aid to Palestinian institutions and U.N. agencies, it will further exacerbate Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, increasing the likelihood of instability.
- Confrontational Iran Policy: Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, escalating tensions with Tehran. A second Trump term might bring renewed pressure on Iran, increasing the likelihood of conflict involving Iranian-backed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Could you elaborate on the historical context of U.S. policies that have shaped the current situation in Gaza?
The situation in Gaza is the product of decades of U.S. foreign policy decisions that have shaped Israeli-Palestinian dynamics:
- 1993 Oslo Accords: The U.S. played a key role in brokering these agreements, which laid the groundwork for Palestinian self-governance. However, the failure to fully implement them left Gaza and the West Bank politically fragmented.
- 2006 Hamas Election Victory: After Hamas won Palestinian legislative elections, the U.S. supported Israel’s blockade of Gaza, severely restricting movement, goods, and economic opportunities.
- George W. Bush’s ‘War on Terror’ Rhetoric: Hamas was designated a terrorist organization, which hardened U.S. policy against engaging with the group diplomatically.
- Obama’s Diplomacy vs. Trump’s Unilateralism: Obama sought a more balanced approach, including pushing for settlement freezes, while Trump abandoned diplomatic engagement with Palestinians altogether, exacerbating Gaza’s isolation.
Over time, U.S. policies—whether through military aid to Israel, sanctions on Hamas, or diplomatic disengagement—have influenced the levels of conflict and humanitarian distress in Gaza.
How do you see the Abraham Accords playing out under Trump’s renewed leadership?
Trump considers the Abraham Accords one of his signature foreign policy achievements, and he would likely aim to expand them in a second term. However, their impact on Gaza is mixed. While they normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan), they did not address core Palestinian issues.
Under Trump’s renewed leadership, we might see:
- Additional Arab States Normalizing Relations with Israel—possibly Saudi Arabia, though this remains complex due to its stance on Palestinian statehood.
- Further Marginalization of Palestinian Leadership—as Trump would likely sideline Palestinian grievances in favor of regional diplomacy.
- Potential Israeli Emboldenment—if Trump uses the Accords as leverage to push back against Iran, we could see increased military actions that impact Gaza indirectly.
Ultimately, without integrating Palestinian interests into the framework, the Accords will do little to improve conditions in Gaza and could deepen Palestinian isolation.
What are the most critical actions the international community can take to address the challenges in Gaza?
The international community must take a multi-pronged approach to stabilizing Gaza:
- Prioritize Humanitarian Aid: Increased funding to UNRWA and international NGOs is crucial to providing essential services like food, healthcare, and education.
- Reestablish Diplomatic Engagement with Palestinian Leaders: A more inclusive peace process that recognizes both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority’s roles is necessary.
- Pressure Israel to Ease the Blockade: While Israel has security concerns, the current blockade fuels economic desperation and radicalization. Conditional incentives could encourage policy shifts.
- Engage Egypt and Gulf States: Regional actors have influence over Hamas and could facilitate de-escalation if leveraged effectively.
- Prevent Further Military Escalation: The U.S. and Europe must act as mediators to ensure that Israeli security operations do not spiral into another full-scale war.
Without strategic, sustained engagement, the situation in Gaza will remain volatile.
What’s your prediction for regional stability in Gaza and the Middle East under Trump’s policies in 2025?
We should brace for heightened instability in Gaza and the broader region. Key predictions include:
- Increased Military Tensions: Israel may feel emboldened to take unilateral action in Gaza, leading to renewed conflict.
- Weakened Diplomatic Efforts: The U.S. may reduce pressure on Israel to negotiate with Palestinians, prolonging hostilities.
- Potential Collapse of Ceasefire Agreements: Without active U.S. diplomatic engagement, existing ceasefires could break down.
- Greater Role for Regional Players: With reduced U.S. involvement, countries like Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia may step up as mediators.
- Heightened Iranian Influence: If Trump pressures Iran, we could see increased funding to Hamas and Hezbollah, escalating proxy conflicts.
Overall, Trump’s policies would likely contribute to a more unpredictable and volatile Middle East, particularly concerning Gaza.
Could you highlight a few key policy changes implemented by Trump that significantly reshaped Gaza?
During Trump’s first term, several major policy shifts had profound effects on Gaza:
- Cutting UNRWA Funding (2018): This removed vital aid that supported millions of Palestinians, worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza.
- Recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital (2017): This led to Palestinian protests, further inflaming tensions.
- The ‘Peace to Prosperity’ Plan (2020): A plan that largely ignored Palestinian sovereignty, reinforcing their diplomatic isolation.
- Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal (2018): Increased tensions with Iran led to greater regional instability, indirectly impacting Gaza through Iranian-backed militant groups.
- Support for Israeli Military Actions: Trump’s policies enabled harsher Israeli military operations in Gaza with minimal U.S. diplomatic restraint.
If these policies are revived, they could deepen Gaza’s crisis and increase the likelihood of renewed conflict.
Robert Cook, a geopolitical analyst and author, explores the complexities of Middle East policies in his latest work. If you would like to buy his book, you can visit themahdi.co.
